Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.404897 1.593096 1.792974 2.020620 2.272244 2.541404 2.850629
2025-01-05 1.098877 1.346680 1.626870 1.965495 2.361907 2.809471 3.351127
2025-01-12 0.890674 1.175707 1.517644 1.954227 2.492622 3.130392 3.938143
2025-01-19 0.717646 1.020664 1.406145 1.925316 2.598131 3.431789 4.532822
2025-01-26 0.610663 0.932969 1.366450 1.979989 2.811969 3.885339 5.356553
2025-02-02 0.517245 0.849024 1.320509 2.020833 3.012524 4.341508 6.226927
2025-02-09 0.432542 0.763592 1.260733 2.035076 3.178512 4.767425 7.095958
2025-02-16 0.364457 0.691675 1.210407 2.056237 3.355906 5.224251 8.045730
2025-02-23 0.294915 0.604350 1.123507 2.010851 3.430329 5.541255 8.825015
2025-03-02 0.231805 0.515205 1.019646 1.924438 3.431765 5.750161 9.463377
2025-03-09 0.193517 0.463768 0.971544 1.922663 3.565119 6.166879 10.440408
2025-03-16 0.158209 0.410225 0.910892 1.890807 3.644806 6.505252 11.321046
2025-03-23 0.137798 0.384948 0.902157 1.956085 3.904833 7.166691 12.779821
2025-03-30 0.109162 0.333618 0.833247 1.900382 3.948671 7.480201 13.709261
2025-04-06 0.089373 0.297844 0.789856 1.887765 4.068634 7.931148 14.896893
2025-04-13 0.072061 0.263001 0.741683 1.858360 4.153894 8.329001 16.024196
2025-04-20 0.062532 0.246822 0.733100 1.910327 4.399669 9.026519 17.705953
2025-04-27 0.053704 0.229812 0.719296 1.949052 4.623164 9.700236 19.389133
2025-05-04 0.045123 0.210436 0.695625 1.962134 4.795788 10.292659 20.965099
2025-05-11 0.038179 0.193951 0.676134 1.982056 4.984279 10.927554 22.654842
2025-05-18 0.030387 0.170729 0.632725 1.937588 5.030365 11.293011 23.873818
2025-05-25 0.023111 0.145571 0.577220 1.853486 4.979597 11.464381 24.740916
2025-06-01 0.019076 0.132348 0.554841 1.851470 5.112540 12.008644 26.340907